Hi there, my name is Ivan, FX trader. After studying varies sources of information for the past few years, my understanding of the FX market has improved dramatically, with this blog simply intending to share with you all a journey within my mind. When I make it to full-time trading, I know the first person I should be grateful to is an Aussie PA trader named Jonathon; He has been inspirational and an enormours influence to gauge where the money flows to. His trades can be followed at http://forexpriceactiontrader.blogspot.com/ . What price is telling you is key, as it always whispers in low or high intensity what market intentions are. I do not endorse the use of any indicators, as they are lagging in nature; analysis should be based on pure price action. Besides, other factors like sentiment, fundamentals, risk control, rock-solid discipline, thousands of hours readings charts, also make up the equation to succesfully ride the FX waves. When entry triggers are detected, I act without hesitation, letting the market do its thing. Please note, information and opinions contained in this blog are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations, thus will not take responisbility for any losses viewers may have. Trading FX carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.







Wednesday, 19 January 2011

CAD/JPY UPDATE - LOSS


Well I guess this is the risky part of this business... not letting the price break clearly the pb highs.. but thats fine for me, I dont overabuse doing that but this time around there was a logical area for the price to retrace... I winning thi one, my RR would have beeb higher than usual... Accept the loss, moving on...
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6 comments:

  1. JVF19 January 2011 at 20:15

    Hey mate,

    great to see youre blog and good luck with it. I think youll find it very beneficial and will also keep you in check if you know others are watching.

    Just a word on this set up. This pin was formed close to a swing high in the middle of a lot of traffic. What I mean is it doesnt just stick out and scream that the market wants to go long. Price if it had of broken the pin was trading straight into bar highs which isnt a problem if trading from swing lows but when you trade from a high to go log you will never have space. Onve again this is fine and can be tradeale as long as your aware of it and manage accordingly.

    Lastly: Mate make sure you use the pip spread and a buffer of 5-10 pips to enter all youre trades. This will save you many many trades over ther times that will not work. In this to me it hasnt broken because if you added the spread plus a buffer you wouldnt be in the trade.

    Good luck mate and hopefully talk soon,

    Johnathon

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mel19 January 2011 at 21:24

    I was long this pin too. Oh well, accept the loss and move on indeed!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. ivan19 January 2011 at 23:17

    thanks for the comments guys,keep them coming. The Kiwi trade certainly looks more well formed and with less traffic congestion.. this CAD had a few hurdles to overcome and you are right johno, didnt surpass the pb highs... sometimes hard to find the balance btw taking breaks and reducing RR, or securing a clear break to increase odds of set-up working in yor favour...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mark22 January 2011 at 03:58

    Ivan,

    I also had the same difficulty, but I am sure if you did some backtesting you would be able to put together some figures to give you some confidence in one method; the testing COULD reveal the following:

    1) Method 1: Enter on retracement, Stop behind pin high/low: R/R = 1:2. % winners = 45%. Expectation = +0.35

    2) Method 2: Enter on break, stop behind pin high/low: R/R = 1:1.5 % winners = 60%. Expectation = +0.50

    3) Method 3: Enter on break, use 'creative stop'(eg behind 50% level of bar): R/R = 1:2, % winners = 50%. Expectation = +0.50

    Now I have just plugged figures into my spreadsheet based on my understanding of looking at the charts for the past few months but I would wager that these probabilities are not far wrong (big caveat here:- for the trades I am looking to trade - not anyone elses). This is why, on the balance of probability, I choose a combination of 2/3 - plus I am now unable to trade intra-day so I can't trade retracements anyway lol!!

    You are more advanced than me so this is not advice just how I see things.

    Cool blog man, look forward to comparing my trades with yours (and Johno's)

    Cheers,

    Mark

    ReplyDelete
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