WEEKLY ACCOUNT SUMMARY - MODEST GAINS

AUD/NZD BUOB WINNER, USD/CHF STOPPED at BE

This trade worked nicely. Once 1.3500 got hit, took money off the table and now venturing out to explore other pairs.

USD/CHF, I gave a try to see if i could get a nice runner but had no luck and didnt take any partial profits before being stopped out at BE.

FIRST TRADES THIS WEEK

Long AUD/NZD on that huge BUOB, aiming for all time high.

Just shorted USD/CHF on a break out from lows after it tested old broken support. Note my entry is actually a bit hgher cause i missed out on the early eruopean trade, so by the time i got home i saw level already broken at 0.9270, so was happy to entry...  I am moving my stop to BE now.

Charts

WEEKLY ACCOUNT SUMMARY - LOSING WEEK

Out of all trades taken, EUR/CAD was the most painful. IB+PB combo can be a powerful one, however this time I was caught not having an area to cut my risk.

EUR/CAD - SECOND LOSS THIS WEEK

In retrospective, I dont quite like how I played the trade. I entered on a break of lows, having a buffer of 30-40 pips minimum as I wanted to see that support clearly broken.. The problem is that I set my SL too tight, not letting the trade much room to breath... I would have prefered to wait for the break down, bounce to retest old S new R, and PA on a lower time frame like the D... However, from the graph I played the trade, W, the trade was taken according to my plan, so I am gonna stick with it and accept the loss as part of the game.

AUD/USD PB H4 LOSS

UPDATE AUD/USD PB H1 AND ENTRY ON PB H4

Dont have much time guys, still gotta go to the gym and run 10 miles minimum.... lol... So I am just gonna copy what I wrote at Johno Forum:

"Here is how all unfolded on my end... I went short on the PBH1 set my SL past the 61.8% fib from the PB length as it was a logical area, i got stopped out but instead of risking 1% i misplaced the volume and ended up just losing 0.2%... (first time this yr... ironically in my only losing trade this moth so far... lol..)Anyway... Then I spotted the H4 PB and thought that was the signal I should have waited for. I set an sell on stop below the low which just got hit, this time I entred the right volume and I am risking 1%...My SL is above the first pin highs... BE around 0.9950. I think there has been massive interest to hunt stops above the H4 PB then as soon as these were triggered the price followed its course to lower ground... typical mkt behaviour, isnt it?  novice traders get swept away, profesionals continue riding the aussie lower...." Feedback welcome

AUD/USD RE-ENTRY SHORT PB H1 OFF PARITY

Risking 1%. I got stopped out on the last short AUD/USD at BE but with 50% profits in my pocket. In the chart you have the explanation why I enter again.

UPDATE AUD/USD SHORT

I have moved my stop to BE and also taken 50% profits. The reasoning behing this trade was explained in the last post. Also I would like to elaborate further why I favoured the short side. Since late Oct 2010 attempts to break 1.0200 have been followed by strong selling interest, suggesting exhaustion on the upside. Price always tells us a story, so now see when selling first kicked in from 1.0200 was Oct 2010, how long did it take for Aussie to retest those highs again? 2 months, the next time in Jan we saw a new retest of highs but it still took the Aussie 1 month to go that high, so this time around on the last try towards 1.0200 Feb, I was expcting the Aussie to struggle first before heading higher once more... 

SHORT AUD/USD and EUR/CAD

The real reason behind my blog...

I wanted to take the liberty to explain what has really pushed me to set-up my blog in this exciting year 2011, how all started. As some of you may know, I made my first steps in the Forex market at LTTTM, mid 2009. However that was just the very beginning, later on I noticed I had to go another few extra-miles if I were to really improve my skills, I wanted so bad to move to the next level in my trading, as I still was trapped in a cycle of boom and bust.

By mid-2010, I embarked upon a new era of trading ideas, complementing my arsenal of strategies with extra tones of worthwhile info out there, all based on pure PA. As I was moving forward, I stumbled across Johno, and that was a true pivotal moment in my trading career (I am sure you all felt somehow the same). He started to share, out of his good will, priceless tips, info, extra ideas to become better traders, he went much more in depth than anyone else I had learnt from in the past. As months passed by, I had been totally dragged into learning how his mind reads the charts, and from that moment onwards, my interventions in the LTTTM forum began to fade away substantially, focusing almost exclusively in his new way to interpret the information.

As I recently explained to one of our followers in a private email, my absence in the forum LTTTM was mainly driven by the abysmal gap between how a novice trader mind would function, and that from someone else with absorption of enough knowledge to know what he is doing. As everything in life, human beings we are conceived to evolve and develop to our full potential if surrounded by the right people ( I believe Jonho is!!!), so when this internal weapon of self-improvement was being constantly disturbed by the bombardment of posts without any substance behind, I thought was time to make a move... you feel the need to somehow shift towards a space with less noise; with the creation of the blog I could solve this issue, while still be surrounded by a bunch of like-minded traders. Note I have nothing against a newbie, we all have gone through that stage, however when someone gets to a decent level, you either move to play in a different league or you may get stuck, that is at least how I felt.

Furthermore, my decision to create this blog was heavily weighed by the need to be held accountable. We have long been taught that trading should be treated as a business; organizations have to open their books and show the numbers, so that stakeholders are satisfied in the way the executives are running the company; they also have to go through an auditing process to make sure they comply with the rules and that they are not caught cheating. I think there is no better way to continue in this ascending path than showing how I run my business in a daily basis. I have committed not to only post my entries live (if time allows me to) but also post my weekly account summary, thats as openly accessible as I get. Besides, another force driving me forward is "expectations"; when an individual is expected to perform in a certain way not to disappoint his followers, that creates a burning desire to get the results in line with those expectations. Not always may work out as planned, it may even not work at all, what I am definitely confident about is that it will help to put the odds in my favour to one day scream out loud ... My long term goal of financial independence has been reached!!!

ENJOY IT...

Here is a song I trully love by Paul Carrack, when I wake up in the morning this song I can assure you that helps me start the day on the right mood! :) Close your eyes and let the rythm transport you... ;)

WEEKLY ACCOUNT SUMMARY - FRUITFUL FEB SO FAR...

Note last week did not post account summary because I did not trade.

USD/CHF WINNER - NOT LIVE

Here is the only trade I have entered this week which unfortunately I could not post live as it happened. USD/CHF formed a BUOB played as contination on the daily. Now the formation by itself was not powerful enought to consider and entry long, however, if you look deeper you will see price broke a descending trendline and did retrace only to find support again on the broken trandline, then rebounded strongly creating that BUOB. I set an order to go long once the highs were broken at 0.9654 with stop below the BUOB low. My TP was at 0.9740 (JUST GOT HIT). Ideally now in hinsight I may have played it differently for tighter stop. See second and third chart.

Note the reason in rare occasions I play breakouts is because I have also learnt a strategy that can be used if factors of confluences are met. First of all we need to see a relevant level broken, in this case was the descending trendline, also find a scenario with no much troubling areas to face, afterwards we wait for a retracement to test the dynamic support created by the trendline and we enter once the most recent highs are broken. See in H4 price broke past the trendline, quickly retested trendline support and came back up breaking a bit higher but we had no follow through cause those little lows (in red dots) acted as hurdle (My entry in this example would have been around 10 pips above those lows). Then we had yet another chance when price retraced lower forming a PB off the trendline (see chart 3 for possible scenario to play it) and bounced back to break recent highs, at that moment, an entry a bit above 0.9600, around 0.9610 would have been great, placing stop loss below swing low. See how price did retrace later but your SL below that swing low would have never been violated...

GBP/USD thoughts...

Hi guys,

I am suspicious a few have been thinking to go long this pair after yesterday's price faked out shorts to get knocked back up... we have great confluence indeed, rejection from the 50% fib retrac, and all happening at big round number 1.6000. However, and this is crucial, all these have to be put into the context of whether or not we are gonna face troubling areas nearby... So suppose we wait for confirmation to go long, thats is, say entering above yesterday's PB high or another scenario(safer) is waiting for price to clear 1.6160 (CORRECTION) IB highs. Where do you think next area of strong traffic congetion will be faced? Thats right, just above at 1.6185 (CORRECTION) or thereabouts, for this simple reason I am not gonna enter....I am now paying much more attention at how much room do we have till price is blocked by one of this nasty FTA (First Troubling Areas as Johno call it, lets universalize this term so we save time typing... lol) rather than by the PA itself. Price Action is just the trigger, however as good hunters of pips we've to always understand what kind of environment we are surronded by, how threatening can be to go get the prey without any damage ( a loss) or at least before we find a shelter ( go BE) to protect oursleves from any upcoming threat. The second image gives you a better idea of what i am talking about...

AUD/USD - HAPPY ENDING...

Eventhough I set my TP at 1.0030, I have been monitoring the trade closely and once hit 1.0031 I just closed it manually. Note many times I may be away thats why defining your TP area makes sense, however if it tuns out I am staring at the screen while it all happens, I may opt for a quick close when price approaches the troubling zone, it really sucks to witness price may fall 1 pip short from hitting your target; in black circles you can see why this area is a logical zone to take the money off the table...

AUD/USD UPDATE

All happened very quick as expected, price broke down 1.0070, faced 1.0050 hurdle and could not get through. Fortunately I took 50% profit MY SL is above the high of the last PB in H1.

AUD/USD short , EUR/AUD TP

There has been a BEOB in the H1 first that have played as continuation of the downside momentum (did engulf many previous bars), then confirmation has come in the form of another BEOB in the H4. I have waited price to break past 1.0070, then have gone short aiming for 1.0030. SL is just above 1.0100. BE at 1.0050/55 area  (swing low). Only risking 1%, normally lower time frames is max. I am willing to lose. Daily chart i am more permissive, risking normally 2 even 3% sometimes.

If I wanted to go short AUD/USD I had to first cancel trade in EUR/AUD, thats what have done... I didnt want to expose myself going long twice the Aussie. Plus in this trade have already made a decent amonunt of pips, although I think price may reach higher ground....

EURAUD long trade

I have taken a ride hgiher on the EUR/AUD, I have been really busy not having much time to post live, willl try to address this shortly, In the meantime I try to update as we move forward. I am aiming to 1.3650. Took some profits when price hit 1.3600. Reason to get in was double rejection from 50% fib

EURCAD UPDATE

Never got in the trade. The buffer saved me.

BEOB EUR/CAD WEEKLY

We are still in the context of a downtrend in the weekly chart, I had the area 1.3650 circled on my chart, as any PA popping up arund this vicinity could be a good chance to go short. The weekly candle formed a BEOB, which aligns with the KHL metioned, and also has rejected 50-61.8% fib from 1.43-1.28 downfall. My BE target and take of some profits is 1.3100, final targeet is set at 1.2800. Entry order is at 1.3342.

USD/CHF - EXAMPLE OF TECHNICAL CONFLUENCE

I am not taking the trade, just wanted to point at a great example of excelent confluence in the pair USD/CHF, we have 50% fib, in line with a descending trend line and a very strong key horizontal level. If any sort of PA is formed around this vicinity, will most definetely jump in...