WEEKLY ACCOUNT SUMMARY

I have decided that in order to be held accountable for all my trading decisions, I will be posting my account summary in a weekly basis.

PRETTY QUICK 2.5/1 RR GBP/USD H1

Since it is Friday and I dont like to leave open positions took 100% off for a 2.5/1 RR risking 1%. Also what influenced my decision to take all gains off the table were: we approach month-end, plus price have reached not just a logical area, but also faces the 61.8% fib from the last run-up, lastly the price has already reached its ATR 14, something i pay attention too in order to complemt my TP or SL strategies.

UPDATE GBP/USD PB H1

Moves to BE. No risk, did as expected. Not taking profit though, wanna let it run in full positon to next bracket around 1.5850, where i will take 1/2 profits minimum...

GBP/USD SHORT ON PB H1

Have been waiting patiently till a new signal popped up. In this pair I found a pb i couldnt help but entering short on the break of the lows. I am risking 1% . See red lines for targets areas, first one will go to BE. It is the only trade I am in along eith a weekly entry short on gold (no risk now)

AUD/NZD CANCELED POSITION

Lows already got broken, so price is now likely to head towards 1.2830/40. I am out.

AUD/NZD BEOB H1. RISK 1%

Since I am bearsh AUD, and within a downtrend xontext we just got this beautiful BEOB, engulfing many H1 candles, will get on board aiming for a retracement towards 1.2950, SL 1.2990 highs, will go BE at BRN 1.2900, final traget are month lows. note I am not entering at the break of 1.2900 cause the RR is very poor, so i prefer to place some logical areas for price to rebound first, although this involves more risk.... will stick to the odds of the BEOB patttern movement appearing, that is, moving to most recent previous candle lows before resuming fall.

EUR/AUD LOOKING QUITE BULLISH m/t VIEW

Ok guys, this is one pair i am extremely eager to jump on board, riding what I expect will be quite a run to the upside.This pair is coming off record lows and with a double-bottom in place on the daily charts, all the signs are looking bullish. I have put this pair on my watch list, monitoring for PA very closely, wanna buy on big dips... around 1.3500 will be ideal... Another one I like is AUD/CAD... Please note I dont trade more than one currency basket at the same time, and since I still have 1 open position with NZD/USD, will try to look at the perfect timing to withdraw my position in this latter, and shifting my focus on any AUD shorts, against mentioned EUR or CAD I would like... reason is dont want to overcommit on shorts oceanic currencies.... Despite everything can happen, some gauge of how the mkt may behave in the future based on fundamental is always an important ingredient to take into consideration... at the moment, eventhough I feel so sorry for all aussies out there, economics wis Australia looks set to face a very steep climb to recover from the natural disaster...  

NZD/USD UPDATE

Well, given the key level that PB formed at, plus closing with a nice looking bullish nose, I will no longer be into this trade should the PB highs get pierced... actuall y my SL will be set 1 pips above 0.7600, reasons is this area may act as a second psichological resistance for the price to keep climbing... I thought it makes sense since btw the highs of the PB anf the BRN there is barely 8 pips dif... I am gonna give myself a chance to still hold the 1/2 position with this second obesrvtion...; the other 1/2position in NZD/USD hit taarget once 0.7550 was reached.

NEW SHORT OPEN IN GOLD WEEKLY - 1% RISK

Apart from assuming a 2% risk in my short position in gold from the daily time-frame (now at BE) I also had a sell on stop risking 1% further, which was filled today when the lows of the weekly BEOB were taken, see chart for levels I am aiming for and SL set. note this signal is quiete solid despite being countertrend, would have loved to risk 2 or even 3%, but given that I already had 2% of my capital risked in the dily, I acted prudently...

TRADES UPDATE - NZD/USD & GOLD

Please refer to this old post to undestarnd my trade

CAD/JPY UPDATE - LOSS

Well I guess this is the risky part of this business... not letting the price break clearly the pb highs.. but thats fine for me, I dont overabuse doing that but this time around there was a logical area for the price to retrace... I winning thi one, my RR would have beeb higher than usual... Accept the loss, moving on...

NZD/USD FAKEY

Unlike Johno, not sure where you set your entry order mate, I set mines once early Dec highs were cleared, otherwwise if taking a market order immediately after the close, I would have traded right into support

UPDATE ON MY OPEN TRADES

Holding SHORT positions in gold; my LONG in CAD/JPY is unaltered too, price retretead to test 21 EMA, my SL is still at decent distance. I spoted a large PB H4 on EUR/USD at KHL, but after 2 H4 candles, I have cancelled position, lows were never taken, momentum is still quite bullish...

 

CAD/JPY PB DAILY

Went long after price pulled back to the previous bar low, got filled at EO 83.47, my SL was placed at 82.77, with TP at 85.20. Will keep you post it on the trade management.

DXY CONFRONTED WITH KEY SUPPORT

Hi guys a heads-up before going to bed and get ready for a new week of trading. All of you thinking to short any USD pair, should also be well aware of where the DXY is at present. The US Dollar index has been losing steam recently, but just check the area of support, quite a critical level indeed. I am not saying it may rebound, but certainly the area has proven to be quite reliable as a rebounding level, which will translate on the strength of most USD crosses.

Here is a brief explantion of the US Dollar index, and the impact it may have in other currencies if we finally see the price snapping back up.

"It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with".

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.

OUTLOOK JAN 17-21

Below you can find the 5 potential set-ups for the upcoming week. Note in 3 of them we have JPY crosses involved. In order to comply with my plan, I will never place more than 1 trade against a currency basket, in this case btw CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY, I am inclined to go long on the latter. Find below explanation. I will also enter a long position on the BUOB in EUR/AUD, this decision will therefore exclude to take a trade in EUR/GBP, as I will be already positioned long EUR, so doesnt make much sense go short EUR/GBP.


EUR/GBP - TM down, KHL, Bearish PB, 50% fib rej, GBP sentiment +.



EUR/AUD - BUOB combined with changing sentiment in both currencies. Floods in Australia are likely to weaken the AUD further. EO 1.3325, SL 1.3190, TP 1.3640, risk 1%

GBP/JPY - TM up, BUOB played as a continuation pattern, GBP sentiment +.

CHF/JPY - TM up, KHL rej, 50% fib rej, Bullish PB

CAD/JPY - TM up, KHL rej, Bullish PB, 50% fib rej., sentiment + CAD.

EO 83.40, SL 82.90, TP 85.20. risk 2%. I tend to take breaks of the PB to confirm signal, however, sometimes if there is a logical area to retrace, my strategu may vary; this is one of these cases where I will aim first for a retrace to previous bar low.

This BUOB on the h4 supports my bullish bias

GOLD BEOB DAILY

Follwing my first post in Gold BEOB W, this new chart shows a new opportunity to go short gold based on again another BEOB, formed at a KHL (key horizontal level), also rejecting the 50% fib retrac. area from Jan 3-7 decline. I was already risking 2% on this trade, but given the fantastic signal which corroborated the bearish momentum, I added in 1% extra risk, setting short entry for 0.5% risk at $1,376, SL 1,385.01, while the remaining 0.5% extra risk got filled in at the break of the BEOB, at 1,368.99 to be precise, SL 1,380.01. Note I normally use a buffer when taking breaks, so that increases the odds of not getting faked out by the market. At the moment of writing, I have my position open, and still have to move to BE. Please click here to read an excellent article from Johno's blog on how to play outside bars

GOLD BEOB WEEKLY

This is my first post. I would like to point out at a gold short entry (still in), which formed at the beginning of the week, starting Jan 10, 2011. Please note from now on I will be posting trades live as they unfold, this first example will be the only exception you will see in hindsight. Into the trade, I took it as the precious metal gave us a nice BEOB indicating exhaustion of the bulls to extend gains, thus increasing the odds for a correction to the downside in the coming weeks. I waited the price to rebound towards 1,387 (50% fib retac. from Jan 3-7 fall), got filled in, then price pulled back to my favour. Before Frday Jan 14 Ny close, moved my position to BE. Initial target is at 1,323.00, but may hold some portion of my contract for a test to $1,265/70 key support. Will continue to explain how I manage the trade.